Seasonal Climate Watch - November 2023 to March 2024

The following text is an extract from the latest report from South African Weather Service:
Date issued: October 31, 2023. 

Overview

"The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in an El Niño state and according to the latest predictions is expected to persist through most of the summer months. ENSO’s typical impact on Southern Africa is in favour for generally drier and warmer conditions during the summer seasons from October to March. However, current global forecasts indicate a great deal of uncertainty for the typical drier conditions that South Africa experiences during typical El Niño seasons, in particular over the eastern parts of the country.

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) multi-model rainfall forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for the north-east of the country during Nov-Dec-Jan (NDJ), Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) and Jan-Feb-Mar (JFM) with below normal rainfall predicted for the central and south-western parts of the country. Predictions still favour above-normal rainfall conditions over the north-eastern parts of the country, even with an El Niño in place. For most of the areas where above-normal rainfall is predicted, these probabilities are low. Caution is advised at this point as the El Niño effect might still manifest its influence in the next few months and change the outlook of the rainfall forecast for mid- and late summer.

Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period.

The SAWS will continue to monitor the weather and climate conditions and provide updates on any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming season."

 

by John Llewellyn

 


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